Climate Changes May Pose Threat to Human Health

It has all the elements of the next blockbuster disaster movie—rising temperatures, extreme weather events, natural disasters, water shortages, malnutrition, disease and death. In reality, it is a lengthy report to be released in the May 16 issue of The Lancet outlining what experts say could happen if global climate change continues on its present course. “Climate change is a health issue affecting billions of people, not just an environmental issue about polar bears and deforestation,” lead researcher Professor Anthony Costello from the Institute for Global Health at University College London said during a news conference. “We are setting up a world for our children and grandchildren that may be extremely frightening and turbulent.”

In 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated temperatures this century will warm by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius, or 2 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit, which will in turn cause sea levels to rise 7 to 23 inches. According to the researchers, the increasingly warmer temperatures will not only worsen existing health problems, but will cause diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, once confined to warmer areas, to become more widespread and increase deaths from more intense storms, flooding and drought. The rising waters could also cause sewers to overflow into rivers and the water table, adding to the spread of illness. Flooding could threaten 13 of the largest 20 cities that are on the coast, leading to mass migration of coastal-dwelling residents and wars as resources such as food and water become scarce.

The researchers say many countries have already reported impacts of climate change. A heat wave across Europe in 2003 cost as many as 70,000 people their lives; a tsunami in 2004 left more than 229,000 victims dead or missing from southeast Asia to eastern Africa; hurricane Katrina in 2005 killed 1,850; and the recent cyclone in Burma claimed about 150,000 lives. 

But the report is much more than just a bleak picture of things to come—it is a call for action. “This is not a disaster movie with a happy ending,” Costello said. “This is something that is happening and we need to do something about it now.” The researchers propose adopting policies to reduce carbon emissions and for health professionals, who have not yet been central to the cause, to come together to address the inadequacies of health systems to protect people in countries most at risk. “Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. It’s a threat that’s been completely neglected, marginalized, ignored, by not just the global health community, by doctors, nurses and other health professionals, but also by policy-makers. And yet, in terms of our well-being, in terms of our survival over the next 100 years, it is absolutely the top political issue that we should be talking about,” said Costello.

Costello stresses that tackling global warming will be a win-win situation for everyone, with even the more industrialized countries in North America, Europe and elsewhere deriving immediate health and financial benefits. “If we move society toward a low-energy, low-carbon lifestyle, we will have reduced levels of obesity, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease from pollution and obviously stress,” he said. “We would also have fewer accidents, cleaner cities and better public transport. All of these advantages must be emphasized to the general public rather than just the alarmist views of death and destruction.”

Other experts agree there is no time to waste. “This is a problem that affects the entire planet, and the longer it takes ‘us,’ the people on this planet, to take action, the more difficult it will be to resolve the problem,” said Kirby Donnelly, head of environmental and occupational health at Texas A&M Health Science Center School of Rural Public Health. “We urgently need to take at least minimal action to try to reduce emissions and move toward taking more significant action to reduce global warming.”

The Lancet’s editor, Richard Horton, says the health sector “has not just underestimated but it has neglected and ignored” the issue. “This has not been an issue on the agenda for any professional body in health over the last 10 years in a significant way.” But, as he told BBC News, “we’ve got the set of priorities now. What we have to do is take them to every climate change conference, write about them, gather evidence and work to the summit in two years’ time—you really can use the science to change policy.”

Global warming has received increasing political attention over the past three decades. This increasing political salience resulted in an intergovernmental meeting in Kyoto in 1997, at which 38 industrialized countries signed up to the Kyoto Protocol. The terms of the agreement were that these nations would reduce their atmospheric emissions of CO2 by an average of 5.2 percent from 190 levels by 2012. Even though this target is well below the 60 percent that scientists working on climate change claim is necessary to prevent further global warming, the agreement was seen by many as a useful first step. However, following the election of George W. Bush, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, claiming that it would inflict disproportionate damage on the U.S. economy given that the country produces 24 percent of global CO2 emissions.

On the other hand, the present administration with President Barack Obama at the helm has taken a different stance on climate legislation. Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee recently agreed on a plan to cut U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions 17 percent by 2020. On June 1, envoys from more than 180 nations are slated to resume talks to forge a new climate treaty by December.