New Diagnostic Tool Accurately Predicts Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease

Approximately 5.3 million Americans and an estimated 26 million people globally are living with the fatal brain disease known as Alzheimer’s. As the disease progresses by destroying brain cells, victims suffer from memory problems, difficulties with thought processes and the development of behavioral problems that reach a level of severity affecting their ability to work, socialize or even enjoy lifelong hobbies. Alzheimer’s disease is now the seventh leading cause of death in the U.S. and accounts for 50 to 70 percent of all dementia cases. The disease has no known cure, nor is any affective treatment currently available, although scientists diligently continue to pursue ways to treat delay or even prevent its onset.

In the ongoing battle against Alzheimer’s, researchers have now developed a checklist that can accurately predict the risk of people over 65 for developing Alzheimer's disease. Over a six-year period, the checklist of risk factors for the disease predicted over half of the cases of dementia in the group of seniors followed. Until now, there have been available ways to predict dementia two decades in the future among middle-aged adults, yet no system to predict onset of the disease later in life. The full report on the study can be found in the journal Neurology.

The diagnostic tool is composed of a 15-point scale of a number of known risks factors for the development of Alzheimer's including advanced age, diminished thinking skills, the presence of the ApoE4 gene, and abnormal MRI findings as well as thicker carotid artery measurements and other vascular indications. Other risk factors included in the index are whether not a patient is underweight, has a history of heart bypass surgery, abstains from alcohol use, or is slow in performing physical tasks such as buttoning a shirt. People scoring 8 or higher on the test are considered to be at high risk of developing dementia within the next six years.

According to researcher Deborah Barnes of the University of California, San Francisco, “This new risk index could be very important both for research and for people at risk of developing dementia and their families.” She also noted that having a tool that capable of predicting the risk of developing Alzheimer's could assist doctors in following patients as well as help drug makers develop medications for the treatment of early stages of the devastating disease.

The research team studied 3,375 people having an average age of 76 and who showed no evidence of dementia. About 60 percent were women, and 15 percent were black. Over the six years of follow-up, 480 of the study participants developed dementia and of those, 56 percent had received high scores on the risk index. This rate was compared to 23 percent of those having received moderate scores and only four percent of those with low scores. Older age and poorer performance on cognitive tests were the strongest indicators of future dementia. On the whole, the index correctly classified 88 percent of the study participants.

On the downside, in addition to simple questions, the tool involves complex physiological testing and may not be practical for clinical use. Barnes said in addition to performing other studies to confirm the index, her team will check for the possibility of a simpler version that could be as accurate.