Dramatic Surge in Diabetes Expected by 2034

More and more adults and children are getting type 2 diabetes, a condition in which the cells of the body don’t use insulin properly. In fact, according to CDC investigators, the prevalence of diabetes in the U.S. has risen by about 5 percent annually since 1990 and today about 24 million Americans have the disease. Two years ago, Dr. Desmond E. Williams, a medical epidemiologist at the CDC, likened the diabetes epidemic to a “freight train that shows no signs of slowing down,” and a new study provides us with a glimpse of the train wreck our country could be headed toward if something isn’t done.

Researchers based at the University of Chicago say if the current trend continues, the number of diabetes cases will nearly double in the next 25 years, climbing from the current 23.7 million to about 44.1 million in 2034. At the same time, the cost of treating people with diabetes is expected to triple, rising from an estimated $113 billion $336 billion. “If we don’t change our diet and exercise habits or find new, more effective and less expensive ways to prevent and treat diabetes, we will find ourselves in a lot of trouble as a population,” said the study’s lead author Dr. Elbert Huang.

The researchers further predict that the number of people with diabetes covered by Medicare will increase from 8.2 million to 14.6 million in 2034, and Medicare spending on diabetes will skyrocket from $45 billion to $171 billion. “That essentially means that in 2034, half of all direct spending on diabetes care will be coming from the Medicare population,” Huang said.

The study was done to improve the information available to the legislators who are now debating changes in the health care system, particularly to Medicare. “The public policy implications are enormous," said study co-author Michael O’Grady, senior fellow at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. “This a serious challenge to Medicare and every other health plan in the country. The cost of doing nothing is the significant increase in the pain and suffering of America’s population and a financial burden that will threaten the financial viability of public and private insurers alike.”

Current health care proposals in Congress attempt to reduce medical spending on chronic diseases such as diabetes by funding preventative programs and by offering incentives for insurers and medical providers to encourage early treatment through so-called “accountable care organizations.” Health care providers in those organizations might be paid a flat fee for the treatment of a patient for a year, along with bonuses if they meet certain criteria of patient health.